The Bachelor Javier Pederzoli economist Studies Center "SER" , referred to the note to give the candidate a National Deputy of the Civic Coalition and the Radical Civic Union, Alfonso Prat Gay the magazine "The Week in brief" about the current economic model, saying : I found it interesting because it has enough basis to discuss viability of the model is so much talk, as he said yesterday Prat Gay: What is the model? Where is it written?
But beyond these questions, some that have no logical answer, here are several reasons why we must change the direction we are taking us.
But beyond these questions, some that have no logical answer, here are several reasons why we must change the direction we are taking us.
INDEC activity data released bleached a sharp slowdown, even when official data are far from the private estimates. According to INDEC, the level of activity increased +2.6% y / y in February (coming from growing 5% y / y in the fourth quarter of 2008) and contrasts with private indicators recorded declines between -4% and -5% a / a.
However, recent months have been a certain stabilization of economic activity, which respond primarily to supply reasons. But history of the demand side is less encouraging. Capital outflows in the first quarter of 2009 (USD 5,200 million)-mirror of distrust and the fall in consumption and investment, ability to advocate the hypothesis of improved demand and expectations encourage short-term recovery.
The first signs of slowdown in the fall, along with other external front, encouraged some analysts to predict the proximity of a flat in the recessionary cycle. The central thesis is that a rebound in the price of agricultural commodities and emerging improvements presented in the speed of contraction of global trade in recent months would support a smooth recovery in the second half of 2009.
This view seems to ignore that the main reasons behind the fall in the level of activity are rooted in economic policy weaknesses that were stripped (but not caused) by the international crisis.
The main problem that makes a quick exit is the inability run counter-cyclical policies. Lack external funding to run a fiscal expansion genuine confidence in the currency needed to push a more expansionary monetary policy on inflation to drive aggressive devaluation of the exchange rate.
This is the biggest difference of Argentina from the rest of the region and challenge the thesis (advocated by the IMF and some analysts) that puts our country in the same club that currently make up Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, among others.
However, recent months have been a certain stabilization of economic activity, which respond primarily to supply reasons. But history of the demand side is less encouraging. Capital outflows in the first quarter of 2009 (USD 5,200 million)-mirror of distrust and the fall in consumption and investment, ability to advocate the hypothesis of improved demand and expectations encourage short-term recovery.
The first signs of slowdown in the fall, along with other external front, encouraged some analysts to predict the proximity of a flat in the recessionary cycle. The central thesis is that a rebound in the price of agricultural commodities and emerging improvements presented in the speed of contraction of global trade in recent months would support a smooth recovery in the second half of 2009.
This view seems to ignore that the main reasons behind the fall in the level of activity are rooted in economic policy weaknesses that were stripped (but not caused) by the international crisis.
The main problem that makes a quick exit is the inability run counter-cyclical policies. Lack external funding to run a fiscal expansion genuine confidence in the currency needed to push a more expansionary monetary policy on inflation to drive aggressive devaluation of the exchange rate.
This is the biggest difference of Argentina from the rest of the region and challenge the thesis (advocated by the IMF and some analysts) that puts our country in the same club that currently make up Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, among others.
economic policy agenda requires more imagination here than just betting on a rise in international prices and improved crop year 2010/11.
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